Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.367010 2.493763 2.629918 2.788233 2.968827 3.170419 3.415430
2025-04-06 2.143514 2.307446 2.492461 2.720331 2.998907 3.336524 3.791077
2025-04-13 2.006329 2.189892 2.403917 2.678231 3.031080 3.487410 4.158917
2025-04-20 1.940919 2.144706 2.389404 2.714993 3.155353 3.765156 4.759560
2025-04-27 1.907110 2.131702 2.409028 2.791910 3.337391 4.152292 5.661359
2025-05-04 1.849319 2.083100 2.377317 2.794181 3.411124 4.389019 6.412840
2025-05-11 1.799791 2.040823 2.349233 2.796425 3.481941 4.633165 7.322102
2025-05-18 1.732357 1.971363 2.279929 2.733066 3.441612 4.672679 7.782146
2025-05-25 1.689796 1.931905 2.248183 2.720594 3.479555 4.863408 8.812249
2025-06-01 1.649352 1.893089 2.214694 2.702143 3.504218 5.033215 9.984778
2025-06-08 1.610927 1.855152 2.180159 2.679028 3.517392 5.182148 11.330075
2025-06-15 1.594640 1.845935 2.184850 2.715635 3.638910 5.605582 15.161575
2025-06-22 1.549457 1.797001 2.132487 2.661819 3.594617 5.637437 16.972788
2025-06-29 1.504805 1.747520 2.077591 2.601128 3.532351 5.613568 18.502696
2025-07-06 1.469633 1.709895 2.038240 2.563007 3.509173 5.688822 22.020577
2025-07-13 1.457354 1.703195 2.043115 2.596410 3.627926 6.198141 49.340724
2025-07-20 1.455592 1.710797 2.068987 2.666107 3.830875 7.091077 NaN
2025-07-27 1.436089 1.692707 2.055631 2.668162 3.892236 7.558633 NaN
2025-08-03 1.417719 1.675570 2.042876 2.670191 3.953893 8.081556 NaN
2025-08-10 1.385586 1.637979 1.997738 2.612808 3.874119 7.956541 NaN
2025-08-17 1.366268 1.618208 1.979155 2.601495 3.899959 8.341269 NaN
2025-08-24 1.346589 1.597391 1.958221 2.584747 3.911144 8.675699 NaN
2025-08-31 1.326819 1.575951 1.935615 2.563749 3.909848 8.956410 NaN